> @B?#` bjbj .&w
%444H8H,tH!" $
"hr$ 4 R4 V?@"4=] 0!x%v%%4
W m^!HHHL HHHL HHHText File S1: Simulator Overview and Population Structure
An overview of the simulator is shown in Figure S1. The stochastic simulator, coded in ANSI c, models cholera natural history (Fig. 1), daily infection transmission dynamics (based on an infection probability function) for a 180day long cholera outbreak in Matlab, and the effect of mass vaccination strategies. The input population, described in detail in section 2 below, is a model of Matlab based on historical data [1]. Each run of the simulator is seeded with five, randomly chosen, unvaccinated, initial infectives.
The simulator tracks the infection status of each person in the population each day during each run, with cholera incidence rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated portions of the population being calculated at the end of the run. For each vaccination strategy investigated, 1000 runs of the simulator are performed and the cholera incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (compared with runs where vaccine coverage is 0%) estimates averaged. The simulator produces the output necessary to produce videos (S1 and S2) of spatialtemporal epidemics at different vaccination coverage levels.
The model population for Matlab, Bangladesh, is based on the population of that area in 1985 as described by Ali, et al. [1]. The population of 183,826 matches, approximately, the age, sex, bari size and bari location distributions of the Matlab population in 1985 [1]. Baris are patrilineally related household clusters [1]. The age and bari size distributions are shown in Figures S2 and S3, respectively. Figure S4 A shows the location of Matlab in Bangladesh. Figure S4 B shows the Chandpur administrative district which contains Matlab. We mapped a rectangular grid onto the Matlab area and divided the grid into 64 similarlysized subregions of about 6 square km in size (Figure S4 C). The study baris were contained within 43 of these subregions, shown in yellow in Figure S4 C. Figure S5 shows the spatial distribution of baris within this study area.
The model represents the number of contacts the typical person makes with sources of potential cholera transmission, mainly consisting of ponds and other water sources, each day. All people in the population are assumed to have exposure to sources of infection within their own subregion. Fifty percent of males 14 to 16 yearsold, and all males over 16 are assumed to work, possibly outside of their subregion, where they can come into contact with additional sources of infection. For those men that work, we assigned each work subregion was randomly assigned, as follows: 51% worked within their residence subregion, 39% worked in a subregion 4 to 10km away, and 10% worked in subregions more than 10km away from their residence subregion. Distancetraveledtowork data were not readily available for Matlab; we based this function on school travel time data reported in the Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Survey (MHSS) [2].
References
M Ali, M Emch, L von Seidlein, M Yunus, et al. Herd immunity conferred by killed oral cholera vaccines in Bangladesh: a reanalysis. Lancet, 366: 4449, 2005.
O Rahman, J Menken, A Foster, P Gertler. MATLAB [BANGLADESH] HEALTH AND SOCIOECONOMIC SURVEY (MHSS), 1996 [Computer file]. 5th ICPSR version. Santa Monica, CA: RAND [producer], 2001. Ann Arbor, MI: Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2001.
PAGE
PAGE 1
!:<Qqu " + < E G K Y t "
6
J
L
N
1@FR]ܽԹܹܵh<hjR?hv$h=hhKhGch/7hh1fhh'NhFJhFJhqChk h#5*hghFJhznhzn5CJ aJ h]5CJ aJ h[r5CJ aJ :;<M
N
]^wyz}
&Fgdh^hgd2
&Fgd2gdtgdFJgdzngd]w
)
1
4
<
L
W
[
e
w
48@ABHmp{)*FS~oŽŽhchJ_
h=hYh{hYh{hYh{hth`0hukhQ3Qhm8hhh2hahEh&<h&<h&<h3Nh<hgh(hthzn=o#&',Lz:E_i8:<=BPUw»дצwkkh_fHq
hBfHq
h_h_fHq
h_hnhhThEhem0hEhem0hM\hem0hThem0h4@hem0hnhem0hEIhem0h3lhem0h?3hem0hchem0h3NhchEIh"&h?3h3l*CI]^`fghvwxz{}~ɽtldt`XTXTXTXTh3jh3UhGh<mHsHh8mHsHh<h2mHsHh<h<mHsHh2 hv$6h<h<6mHsHh<hv$mHsHhv$hGhQfHq
hH!hv$5CJ$aJ$hH!h]5CJ$aJ$"hT5CJ$aJ$fHq
hgfHq
hnfHq
hGh\h"hQh3h'/0JmHnHuhWh_
h_0Jjh_0JU
&Fgd&`#$gdW,1h/ =!"#$%@@@NormalCJ_HaJmH sH tH DA@DDefault Paragraph FontRiRTable Normal4
l4a(k(No ListHH_6Balloon TextCJOJQJ^JaJ4 @4_Footer
!.)@._Page Numberj#jD:
Table Grid7:V0
&;<MN]^w
y
z

}
0000000000@0 0@0 0@000@000@000@000@0@0@0@0@0@000`000t;<MN]^
000000000@0@0@ 0@0@ 0 $$$'o
'!!l,2$qTMSL*@0(
B
S ?
$12L3LWX'?jR?4@B@B$CDCvLD>!EF~@FuFEIYJGKKtK'N0aN2OjORPyuPQQ3Q:RSzT)Ug@UzVNWlYuY9ZX[]d]E__A_F_^h_a`ca0cHlc}Ed]d0f1f0gZj3lmmznQn[oVqrPr[rAunvtmx)PyfzhzYh{i{Z{}m~yuk[E[tAOS/aubakt%YN
%0sw<i@:h6*3*n}G( <:EC%Q3EFJ`0A&3AWB.HK,q8D1vO<&=g<rd_(8W7!VUo!#bSw5lkuX8b?
"1c
4W\bU
zC\w!c"f+\Y5[l+]gS}24([j(w<AGcm(4dn@1ZQm3=Ynk 3r?Q^3NaH@v
v
"v
v
@@UnknownGz Times New Roman5Symbol3&z Arial5&zaTahoma"1hչf$۹ҶFuu!4dq
q
2QHP ?2&Controlling Cholera With Oral VaccinesAzhar NizamlonginiOh+'0 ,8
Xdp
(Controlling Cholera With Oral VaccinesAzhar NizamNormal.dotlongini6Microsoft Office Word@@*@&u@Pء=u՜.+,0hp
q
'Controlling Cholera With Oral VaccinesTitle
!"#$%&'()*+,.012345689:;<=>ARoot Entry FѲ=CData
1Table$%WordDocument.&SummaryInformation(/DocumentSummaryInformation87CompObjq
FMicrosoft Office Word Document
MSWordDocWord.Document.89q