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Research Article

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

  • Jeffrey W. Eaton mail,

    jeffrey.eaton@imperial.ac.uk

    Affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

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  • Leigh F. Johnson,

    Affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

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  • Joshua A. Salomon,

    Affiliation: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

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  • Till Bärnighausen,

    Affiliations: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa

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  • Eran Bendavid,

    Affiliation: Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America

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  • Anna Bershteyn,

    Affiliation: Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, Washington, United States of America

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  • David E. Bloom,

    Affiliation: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

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  • Valentina Cambiano,

    Affiliation: Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom

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  • Christophe Fraser,

    Affiliation: Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

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  • Jan A. C. Hontelez,

    Affiliations: Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands, Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands

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  • Salal Humair,

    Affiliations: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, School of Science and Engineering, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan

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  • Daniel J. Klein,

    Affiliation: Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, Washington, United States of America

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  • Elisa F. Long,

    Affiliation: Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America

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  • Andrew N. Phillips,

    Affiliation: Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom

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  • Carel Pretorius,

    Affiliation: Futures Institute, Glastonbury, Connecticut, United States of America

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  • John Stover,

    Affiliation: Futures Institute, Glastonbury, Connecticut, United States of America

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  • Edward A. Wenger,

    Affiliation: Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, Washington, United States of America

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  • Brian G. Williams,

    Affiliation: South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa

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  • Timothy B. Hallett

    Affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

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  • Published: July 10, 2012
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245
  • Featured in PLOS Collections

About the Authors

Jeffrey W. Eaton, Timothy B. Hallett
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Leigh F. Johnson
Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
Joshua A. Salomon, Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, Salal Humair
Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
Till Bärnighausen, Jan A. C. Hontelez
Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Mtubatuba, South Africa
Eran Bendavid
Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
Anna Bershteyn, Daniel J. Klein, Edward A. Wenger
Intellectual Ventures Laboratory, Bellevue, Washington, United States of America
Valentina Cambiano, Andrew N. Phillips
Research Department of Infection & Population Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Christophe Fraser
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Jan A. C. Hontelez
Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Jan A. C. Hontelez
Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands
Salal Humair
School of Science and Engineering, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
Elisa F. Long
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Carel Pretorius, John Stover
Futures Institute, Glastonbury, Connecticut, United States of America
Brian G. Williams
South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Corresponding Author

Email: jeffrey.eaton@imperial.ac.uk

Competing Interests

I have read the journal's policy and have the following conflicts: JAS is a member of the PLoS Medicine Editorial Board. TB, DEB, and SH received a grant from the World Bank Global HIV/AIDS program through the Economics Reference Group for the initial development of the BBH model.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: JWE JAS BGW TBH. Performed the experiments: JWE LFJ TB EB AB DEB VC CF JACH SH DJK EFL ANP CP JS EW. Analyzed the data: JWE. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: JWE. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: JWE LFJ JAS TB EB AB DEB VC CF JACH SH DJK EFL ANP CP JS EAW BGW TBH. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: JWE LFJ JAS TB EB AB DEB VC CF JACH SH DJK EFL ANP CP JS EAW BGW TBH. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions: JWE LFJ JAS TB EB AB DEB VC CF JACH SH DJK EFL AP CP JS EAW BGW TBH.