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Research Article

Estimating Infection Attack Rates and Severity in Real Time during an Influenza Pandemic: Analysis of Serial Cross-Sectional Serologic Surveillance Data

  • Joseph T. Wu mail,

    joewu@hku.hk

    Affiliation: Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Andrew Ho,

    Affiliation: Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Edward S. K. Ma,

    Affiliation: Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Cheuk Kwong Lee,

    Affiliation: Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Daniel K. W. Chu,

    Affiliation: Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Po-Lai Ho,

    Affiliation: Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Ivan F. N. Hung,

    Affiliation: Department of Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Lai Ming Ho,

    Affiliation: Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Che Kit Lin,

    Affiliation: Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Thomas Tsang,

    Affiliation: Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Su-Vui Lo,

    Affiliations: Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Yu-Lung Lau,

    Affiliation: Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Gabriel M. Leung,

    Affiliation: Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Benjamin J. Cowling equal contributor,

    equal contributor Contributed equally to this work with: Benjamin J. Cowling, J. S. Malik Peiris

    Affiliation: Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • J. S. Malik Peiris equal contributor

    equal contributor Contributed equally to this work with: Benjamin J. Cowling, J. S. Malik Peiris

    Affiliations: Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China, HKU-Pasteur Research Center, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

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  • Published: October 04, 2011
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001103

About the Authors

Joseph T. Wu, Andrew Ho, Lai Ming Ho, Benjamin J. Cowling
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Edward S. K. Ma, Daniel K. W. Chu, Po-Lai Ho, J. S. Malik Peiris
Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Cheuk Kwong Lee, Che Kit Lin
Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Ivan F. N. Hung
Department of Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Thomas Tsang
Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Su-Vui Lo
Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Su-Vui Lo, Gabriel M. Leung
Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
Yu-Lung Lau
Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
J. S. Malik Peiris
HKU-Pasteur Research Center, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China

Corresponding Author

Email: joewu@hku.hk

Competing Interests

BJC reports receiving research funding from MedImmune Inc., a manufacturer of influenza vaccines. JSMP is on the Editorial Board of PLoS Medicine. LMH is a member of the Scientific Committee on Advanced Data Analysis and Disease Modelling, Center for Health Protection, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It is unpaid. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: JTW CKLee GML BJC JSMP. Performed the experiments: JTW AH ESKM DKWC PLH LMH. Analyzed the data: JTW AH BJC JSMP. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: JTW CKLee IFNH CKLin TT SVL YLL GML BJC JSMP. Wrote the paper: JTW BJC JSMP. Enrolled patients: JTW IFNH CK Lee CK Lin YLL BJC. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: JTW AH ESKM CKLee DKWC PLH IFNH LMH CKLin TT SVL YLL GML BJC JSMP. Agree with the manuscript's results and conclusions: JTW AH ESKM CKLee DKWC PLH IFNH LMH CKLin TT SVL YLL GML BJC JSMP. Wrote the first draft: JTW BJC JSMP.