Advertisement
Research Article

Predicting the Epidemic Sizes of Influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: A Statistical Method

  • Edward Goldstein mail,

    egoldste@hsph.harvard.edu

    Affiliation: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

    X
  • Sarah Cobey,

    Affiliation: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

    X
  • Saki Takahashi,

    Affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America

    X
  • Joel C. Miller,

    Affiliations: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America

    X
  • Marc Lipsitch

    Affiliations: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America, Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

    X
  • Published: July 05, 2011
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001051

About the Authors

Edward Goldstein, Sarah Cobey, Joel C. Miller, Marc Lipsitch
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
Saki Takahashi
Department of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
Joel C. Miller
Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
Marc Lipsitch
Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Corresponding Author

Email: egoldste@hsph.harvard.edu

Competing Interests

Marc Lipsitch is on the PLoS Medicine Editorial Board. ML discloses consulting income from the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry (Outcome Sciences, funded in part by Roche) and from Pfizer/Wyeth and from Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: EG SC JCM ML. Performed the experiments: EG ST. Analyzed the data: EG ST SC ML. Wrote the paper: EG SC ML. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: EG ST SC JCM ML. Agree with the manuscript's results and conclusions: EG ST SC JCM ML. Wrote the first draft of the paper: EG SC ML.