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Research Article

The Severity of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian Analysis

  • Anne M. Presanis,

    Affiliation: Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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  • Daniela De Angelis,

    Affiliations: Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, United Kingdom

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  • The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team3¶,

    Affiliation: Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, City of New York, New York, New York, United States of America

    Membership of The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team is provided in the Acknowledgments.

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  • Angela Hagy,

    Affiliation: Department of Health, City of Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States of America

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  • Carrie Reed,

    Affiliation: Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

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  • Steven Riley,

    Affiliation: Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

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  • Ben S. Cooper,

    Affiliation: Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, United Kingdom

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  • Lyn Finelli,

    Affiliation: Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America

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  • Paul Biedrzycki,

    Affiliation: Department of Health, City of Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States of America

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  • Marc Lipsitch mail

    mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu

    Affiliation: Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Departments of Epidemiology and Immunology & Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

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  • Published: December 08, 2009
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207

About the Authors

Anne M. Presanis, Daniela De Angelis
Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Daniela De Angelis, Ben S. Cooper
Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, United Kingdom
The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team3¶
Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, City of New York, New York, New York, United States of America
Angela Hagy, Paul Biedrzycki
Department of Health, City of Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States of America
Carrie Reed, Lyn Finelli
Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
Steven Riley
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Marc Lipsitch
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Departments of Epidemiology and Immunology & Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Corresponding Author

Email: mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu

Competing Interests

ML has received consulting fees from the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry (Outcome Sciences), sponsored in part by Roche.

Author Contributions

ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: AMP DDA TNYCSFIT AH CR SR BSC LF PB ML. Agree with the manuscript's results and conclusions: AMP DDA TNYCSFIT AH CR SR BSC LF PB ML. Designed the experiments/the study: TNYCSFIT SR BSC LF ML. Analyzed the data: AMP LF ML. Collected data/did experiments for the study: TNYCSFIT AH LF PB. Enrolled patients: TNYCSFIT AH. Wrote the first draft of the paper: ML. Contributed to the writing of the paper: AMP DDA TNYCSFIT AH CR SR BSC LF PB. Contributed to model development: AMP. Contributed to model development and assessment: DDA. The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team, who designed the surveillance for NYC, collected, cleaned, and did initial analyses of the data, is responsible for the data integrity of the NYC data and shared it with the other authors, and played a significant role in revising the paper and thinking through the analyses.