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Research Article

The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue in Thailand: Insights from a Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling

  • Derek A. T. Cummings mail,

    dcumming@jhsph.edu

    Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

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  • Sopon Iamsirithaworn,

    Affiliation: Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand

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  • Justin T. Lessler,

    Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

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  • Aidan McDermott,

    Affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America

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  • Rungnapa Prasanthong,

    Affiliation: Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand

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  • Ananda Nisalak,

    Affiliation: Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand

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  • Richard G. Jarman,

    Affiliation: Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand

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  • Donald S. Burke,

    Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America

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  • Robert V. Gibbons

    Affiliation: Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand

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  • Published: September 01, 2009
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000139

About the Authors

Derek A. T. Cummings, Justin T. Lessler
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Rungnapa Prasanthong
Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
Aidan McDermott
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
Ananda Nisalak, Richard G. Jarman, Robert V. Gibbons
Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
Donald S. Burke
Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America

Corresponding Author

Email: dcumming@jhsph.edu

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: DC SI JL AM RP AN RGJ DSB RVG. Agree with the manuscript's results and conclusions: DC SI JL AM RP AN RGJ DSB RVG. Designed the experiments/the study: DC AM RGJ RVG. Analyzed the data: SI AM RGJ RVG. Collected data/did experiments for the study: DC AN RGJ. Wrote the first draft of the paper: DC RVG. Contributed to the writing of the paper: DC SI JL RGJ DSB RVG. Involved in the discussions and analysis plans for the paper from its inception, including the idea of the analysis: RVG.