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Research Article

The Limits and Intensity of Plasmodium falciparum Transmission: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination Worldwide

  • Carlos A Guerra,

    Affiliations: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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  • Priscilla W Gikandi,

    Affiliation: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya

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  • Andrew J Tatem,

    Affiliations: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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  • Abdisalan M Noor,

    Affiliations: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Centre for Tropical Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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  • Dave L Smith,

    Affiliation: Department of Zoology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America

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  • Simon I Hay mail,

    To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: shay@nairobi.kemri-wellcome.org (SIH); rsnow@nairobi.kemri-wellcome.org (RWS)

    Affiliations: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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  • Robert W Snow mail

    To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: shay@nairobi.kemri-wellcome.org (SIH); rsnow@nairobi.kemri-wellcome.org (RWS)

    Affiliations: Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, Centre for Tropical Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

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  • Published: February 26, 2008
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050038

About the Authors

Carlos A Guerra, Priscilla W Gikandi, Andrew J Tatem, Abdisalan M Noor, Simon I Hay, Robert W Snow
Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenyan Medical Research Institute–University of Oxford–Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
Carlos A Guerra, Andrew J Tatem, Simon I Hay
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Abdisalan M Noor, Robert W Snow
Centre for Tropical Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Dave L Smith
Department of Zoology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America

Corresponding Authors

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

CAG, SIH, and RWS wrote the manuscript and developed and implemented the biological rules of exclusion. CAG designed and implemented the databases. CAG, PWG, and RWS compiled and mapped PfAPI and PfPR data. AJT processed the environmental data required for the temperature and aridity masks. CAG implemented the masks and extracted populations at risk. AMN advised on GIS applications. DLS advised on the age-standardization of PfPR data.