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Research Article

Epidemiology of HPV 16 and Cervical Cancer in Finland and the Potential Impact of Vaccination: Mathematical Modelling Analyses

  • Ruanne V Barnabas mail,

    To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: ruanne.barnabas@ndm.ox.ac.uk

    Affiliations: Cancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom

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  • Päivi Laukkanen,

    Affiliations: National Public Health Institute, Helsinki and Oulu, Finland, Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki, Finland

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  • Pentti Koskela,

    Affiliation: National Public Health Institute, Helsinki and Oulu, Finland

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  • Osmo Kontula,

    Affiliation: Family Federation of Finland, Helsinki, Finland

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  • Matti Lehtinen,

    Affiliations: National Public Health Institute, Helsinki and Oulu, Finland, School of Public Health, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland

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  • Geoff P Garnett

    Affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom

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  • Published: April 04, 2006
  • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030138

About the Authors

Ruanne V Barnabas
Cancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Ruanne V Barnabas, Geoff P Garnett
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
Päivi Laukkanen, Pentti Koskela, Matti Lehtinen
National Public Health Institute, Helsinki and Oulu, Finland
Päivi Laukkanen
Finnish Cancer Registry, Institute for Statistical and Epidemiological Cancer Research, Helsinki, Finland
Osmo Kontula
Family Federation of Finland, Helsinki, Finland
Matti Lehtinen
School of Public Health, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland

Corresponding Author

Email: ruanne.barnabas@ndm.ox.ac.uk

Competing Interests

GPG and RVB are consultants for Sanofi-Pasteur MSD.

Author Contributions

ML and GPG led the design of the study. RVB and GPG were primarily responsible for developing the mathematical model of HPV infection and progression to cervical cancer. PK was responsible for the serological data. OK was responsible for the sexual behaviour data. RVB and PL were primarily responsible for the estimation of HPV 16 transmission probability. PL was responsible for the statistical analyses and Finnish demographic and health care data. RVB and GPG were responsible for the vaccination scenarios. RVB, PL, PK, OK, ML and GPG participated in interpretation of the results and writing and revision of the report.